The effect of sociodemographic diversity of residential customers on the financial risk experienced in the retail electricity market

The sociodemographic diversity of residential customers can affect the level of financial risk that an electricity provider experiences in the retail market. To demonstrate the relationship between sociodemographic diversity and financial risk, electricity consumption data drawn from the United Kingdom Power Networks ‘Low Carbon London’ project was analyzed to explore the relationship between sociodemographic diversity and financial risk experienced by electricity retailers. The results show that when increasing the sociodemographic diversity amongst a group of residential customers the effect on financial risk depends on the electricity consumption patterns of individual customers and the relationship of consumption patterns between residential customers. Increasing sociodemographic diversity amongst residential customers with very distinct energy consumption patterns can decrease the overall financial risk associated with the aggregated revenue received from these customers. However, the results showed that adding customers to a customer base without consideration for their sociodemographic background can cause the overall financial risk associated with the aggregated revenue received to change erratically. Whilst previous studies have considered customer diversity and its influence on peak electricity demand, this research advances the state-of-the-art by showing the importance of customer diversity to the financial quantity risk experienced by electricity retailers. This finding has serious implications for electricity providers seeking to mitigate financial risk in the retail electricity market.     

张家峁矿构建双重预防机制的实践

为了将风险控制在隐患形成之前、把隐患消灭在事故前面,以风险管控为核心,通过“基于风险”的PDCA全方位安全管理模式,构建了风险分级管控和隐患排查治理双重预防机制。以张家峁煤矿建立煤矿企业安全生产的长效机制为例,结合该矿在构建双重预防性工作机制方面的创新做法,分析了双重预防性工作机制的形成背景、建设过程及实施方法。分析认为,完善安全生产管理理论体系,能有效预防和遏制重特大事故的发生,对企业安全生产管理起到积极的推动作用。     

Research on thermal risk and decomposition behavior of methyl nitrite

The thermal hazards of methyl nitrite(MN) were investigated in the present study. The determination and evaluation of MN decomposition were conducted using a C600 micro thermometer. The thermal runaway reaction characteristics of the compound under different initial pressures were obtained using a VSP2 calorimeter. The kinetic parameters of MN were obtained by regression fitting and calculation of the microthermal experimental data. The experimental and calculated results demonstrated that the potential explosion risk of MN is very high.In addition, there was a high energy barrier in the early stage of the uncontrolled decomposition of MN; however,once the decomposition reaction was initiated, the subsequent decomposition was easily conducted. Under the conditions of adiabatic simulation, the possibility that the reaction was uncontrolled increases with the initial temperature and pressure of the system, and there is a great potential safety risk.     

立式退火炉张力设定模型及应用

带钢在立式退火炉内发生瓢曲、跑偏的临界张力与炉辊凸度、带钢规格都存在一定关系，但缺乏合理的定量分析方法，难以科学制定不同规格、不同钢种带钢的炉内单位张力。通过引入瓢曲风险因子BRI，可以定量地分析炉内板带瓢曲风险，从而确定冷硬板带炉内张力设定上限，即板带发生热瓢曲的临界张力σC，为连退炉加热段和冷却段的张力控制提供依据。采用该方法对连退炉加热、冷却区的张力进行了优化，应用结果表明，优化后的张力值与实测值更加吻合。     

以风险防控为导向优化电镀企业环境风险应急管理的研究

以风险防控为导向,建立了针对电镀行业的环境风险因子库,共计26项因子。以东莞某电镀园区为例,结合现场调研、因子分析等工作,筛选出九大重点改善因子。采用统计学方法对因子改善前后的结果进行横向及纵向对比,总结出行业普遍存在的薄弱环节,提出有针对性的预防管理对策。     

基于精细化工行业风控评价系统研究

就目前精细化工行业风险存在的问题,针对精细化工行业企业,从金融信贷信息、企业运营信息、行业评价信息、诉讼信息、发展能力等5个维度构建指标评价体系,从而设计了一套完整的服务大数据和人工智能时代的监管信息平台体系。通过搭建模型管理架构,建设监控预警、追踪查证为主的业务应用平台,介绍了可以实现精细化工行业风控评价指标以及即时反馈的风险系统,大大降低精细化工行业的风险系数。     

煤层底板突水危险性分析：以唐山市钱家营矿12煤层底板为例

唐山市钱家营矿地处开平向斜南东翼,地质条件复杂,为探究钱家营矿12煤层底板突水危险性,基于矿井钻孔与水文地质资料,选取钱家营矿12煤层底板受奥灰水水压、隔水层厚度、有效脆性岩层厚度以及断层与褶皱分布作为影响钱家营矿12煤层底板突水的主控地质因素,运用层次分析法对各主控因素进行评价、构造判断矩阵、计算各主控因素所占权重、引入危险性评价模型并为所得数据选取合理的界限值,最终得到钱家营矿12煤层底板突水危险性评价分区图。研究表明:钱家营矿12煤层底板突水可能性较大,尤其是构造较为发育的东北地区,对比矿井水文地质资料,评价结果与实际拟合较好。本次研究为有效防治煤层底板水害提供了理论与技术支持。     

淮南采煤沉陷区积水重金属健康风险评价

为研究淮南采煤沉陷区积水中重金属对人体产生的潜在健康风险,对9个矿19个沉陷水域进行采样,测试5种重金属(Cd、Cr、Pb、Ni、Zn)含量,采用美国环境保护局(USEPA)推荐使用的健康风险评价模型,对其进行健康风险评价。研究结果表明：(1)采样水域5种重金属年平均离子浓度由大到小依次为：Zn＞Cr＞Ni＞Pb＞Cd,重金属的分布影响因素可能与农药化肥的使用、工业废水的排放、汽车尾气中重金属的大气沉降、渔业养殖以及采煤活动等因素有关；(2)重金属的健康风险值总体随季节变化,呈现出丰水期小于枯水期的特点；该区域沉陷积水的重金属致癌风险整体较为安全,但化学致癌物(Cr)的健康风险值超出其它4种重金属4~8个数量级；(3)5种重金属的健康风险平均值排序为：Cr＞Cd＞Pb＞Zn＞Ni,其中Cd的致癌风险值及Pb、Zn、Ni非致癌风险值均低于最大可接受风险值(5.05×10-5a-1)。     

深部巷道裂隙围岩危险体判定及应力监测预警

工程岩体是由节理、裂隙等结构组成的不连续介质体,深部巷道处于高地压、强扰动的复杂工程环境中,裂隙岩体的稳定性是深部工程安全稳定性研究的重要课题。本文以矿井深部巷道为研究对象,构建离散裂隙网络模型,获得等效岩体参数,并以此建立裂隙岩体工程模型;分析工程巷道裂隙围岩的应力、变形和破坏特征。模拟试验结果表明:斜联巷、釆联巷、水仓与主运输巷交叉等位置是应力集中区,易产生张拉、剪切破坏;根据数值模拟获得的应力集中危险区域分布特点,布设围岩应力监测网络,成功预警位于斜联巷和水仓连接巷的顶板塌落事故,为矿山设备、人员安全提供了可靠的保障。     

乌兰矿采矿现状及技术应对方案

本文分析了乌兰矿投产前期采矿现状及存在的主要问题,针对该矿所处蒙古国经济落后、投资风险大的现实状况,为避免生产中断、规避投资风险,早日回收前期投资考虑,采取了双斜坡道开拓、全尾胶结充填、高端壁空场嗣后充填采矿、多中段组合式连续开采等系列技术应对方案。大大降低了一次性投资规模及投资风险,前期投资得以快速回笼的同时,矿山产能也充分释放,确保了矿山的持续稳定,取得了较好的经济和社会效益。为海外地下近地表矿体开采矿山规避投资风险提供了很好的技术方案借鉴。